Bookies Beat Pollsters in Scottish Referendum

Bookies Beat Pollsters in Scottish Referendum

The Scottish referendum: Bookies had been predicting an 80 percent potential for a ‘no’ vote, although the polls were contradictory and inaccurate.

Did bookies know the results of this Scottish referendum in advance, while polls were way off the mark? It sure looks that way.

Scotland has voted in which to stay the UK, with 55.3 per cent of voters determining against dissolving the 300-year union of nations and going it alone. Many were surprised that the margin between winning and losing votes was since wide as ten percent; a number of polls had predicted that the result was too close to phone and that the ‘Yes’ and ‘No’ campaigns were split straight down the middle.

The fact is, polls were all over the accepted destination: contradictory and fluctuating wildly. They ranged from a six-point lead for the ‘yes’ vote to a seven point lead for the ‘no’ vote into the weeks leading up to the referendum. And although these were properly predicting a ‘no’ vote on the eve of the big day, they considerably underestimated the margin of the ‘No’ triumph.

Margins of Error

Not the bookies, though. They had it all figured down ages ago. Although the pollsters’ predictions were see-sawing, online activities outfit that is betting had already decided to pay out bettors who had their funds on a’no’ vote several times ahead of the referendum even occurred. And while there is a whiff of a PR stunt about that announcement, it was made from the position of supreme confidence, because the wagering markets were rating the likelihood of a ‘no’ vote at around 80 percent at the least a week before the vote happened. It absolutely was a forecast that, unlike compared to the heavily swinging results of the pollsters, remained stable in the lead as much as the referendum.

But why, then, are polls so unreliable when compared with the wagering areas, and exactly why is the media in such thrall with their wildly unreliable results? The polling organizations freely admit that their studies are inaccurate, usually advising that we should permit a margin of error, commonly around five percent. Which means in a closely fought race, such since the Scottish referendum, their info is utterly worthless. In a race where one party, according to the polls, is leading by, say, 52 per cent, the existence of a 5 percent margin of error renders that survey useless.

The Wrong Questions

There are many factors that make polls unreliable, too many, in reality, to list here. Sometimes the test size of respondents is too low, or it is unrepresentative of the people. Often they ask leading questions, or those that conduct them are dishonest or sloppy about recording information. Nevertheless the ultimate, prevailing explanation why polls fail is that they usually ask the question that is wrong. Instead of asking people whom they’ll vote for, they ought to be asking the relevant question that the bookies constantly ask: ‘Who do you think will win?’

Research conducted by Professor Justin Wolfers suggests that this question yields better forecasts, because, to quote Wolfers, it ‘leads them to also reflect on the opinions of these because it may yield more truthful answers. around them, and perhaps also’

Dishonest Responses

Those interviewed by pollsters are far more likely to express their support for change, while suppressing their concerns about the possible negative consequences in a case such as the Scottish referendum, where there is a large and popular movement for change. When asked about a problem on the spot, it’s easier to express the perceived popular view. For the Scots, a ‘yes’ vote might represent the attractive idea of severing ties with a remote and unpopular government in Westminster, but it means uncertainty and possible economic chaos.

As Wolfers states, ‘There is really a tendency that is historical polling to overstate the likelihood of success of referendums, possibly because we’re more willing to tell pollsters we will vote for change than to do so. Such biases are less likely to distort polls that ask those who they think will win. Indeed, in offering their objectives, some respondents may even mirror on whether or not they believe recent polling.

In a nutshell, when asked whether they might vote for an separate Scotland, a substantial number of Scots evidently lied. Gamblers, on the other hand, were brutally honest.

Suffolk Downs to Close Wynn Everett License that is following Pick

Suffolk Downs in happier times: Horseracing attendance has fallen by 40 per cent in the last few years. Now the choice of Wynn Everett for the East Massachusetts casino permit has sealed the racetrack’s fate.(Image: bloodhorse.com)

Suffolk Downs, the historic horseracing that is thoroughbred in East Boston, is to close, officials have actually established. Meanwhile, Wynn Resorts celebrates securing the single East Massachusetts casino license because of their Wynn Everett project, that will see the construction of a $1.2 billion casino resort in Everett, barring an unlikely casino repeal vote in November.

Suffolk Downs is be the very first casualty of this week’s selection process. In favoring the Wynn bid over that of the Mohegan Sun’s, the Massachusetts Gaming Commission has hammered the final nail into the coffin of thoroughbred horseracing in the state. Suffolk is certainly one of just two horseracing tracks in Massachusetts, and the only one exclusively for thoroughbreds.

Mohegan Sun’s proposed resort would be to have been built on land owned by Suffolk Downs in Revere, and the racetrack had pledged to continue horseracing there for at the least 15 years should Mohegan Sun win the bid. However, the Commission, which voted 3:1 against Mohegan Sun, decided that the Wynn proposal offered better prospective to produce jobs and start up new avenues of revenue for hawaii. Suffolk Downs COO Chip Tuttle made the announcement that the track wouldn’t normally find a way to continue right after the Gaming Commission’s decision was made public.

End for the Track

‘We are extraordinarily disappointed as this course of action is likely to cost the Commonwealth a huge number of jobs, small business and family farms,’ Tuttle said. ‘ We are going to be fulfilling with employees and horsemen over the next several times to talk about exactly how we wind down racing operations, being a 79-year legacy of Thoroughbred racing in Massachusetts will be coming to a finish, resulting in unemployment and uncertainty for many hardworking individuals.’

The industry has been hit by way of a 40 per cent lowering of recent years and Suffolk’s closure probably will affect hundreds of thoroughbred breeders, owners, farriers and others who make their living in Massachusetts horseracing industry. The need to safeguard Suffolk Downs had been one of the primary motivations for the 2011 Gambling Act, which expanded casino gaming in Massachusetts and created the Massachusetts that is east casino, and the choice to go with Wynn has angered many people.

‘Today’s decision to award the license to Everett effectively put several hundred of my constituents out of work,’ said Representative RoseLee Vincent, a Revere Democrat. ‘It is disturbing that the commission could minmise the working jobs of 800 hardworking people.’

Deep History

Many industry workers feel betrayed by politicians plus the Gaming Commission. ‘What’s depressing is we worked so very hard to obtain that gaming bill passed with the idea that it would definitely save yourself the farms and save racing in Massachusetts,’ said George F. Brown, the owner and supervisor of the breeding farm, who added that the ruling would ‘probably essentially … put all of the farms like mine out of company.’

Suffolk Downs opened in 1935, right after parimutuel betting was legalized in the state. In 1937, Seabiscuit won the Massachusetts Handicap here, breaking the track record in the process. The race was attended by 40,000 individuals. The track has hosted races featuring legendary racehorses like Whirlaway, Funny Cide, and Cigar over the years. In 1966, the Beatles played a concert right here regarding the track’s infield in front of 24,000 screaming fans.

Ultimately, however, a history that is richn’t sufficient to save Suffolk Downs, and, ironically and poignantly, the bill which was built to rescue this famous old racetrack seemingly have killed it.

Donald Trump Poised to Simply Take Back Trump Atlantic City Casinos

Is Donald Trump serious about saving Atlantic City or is he just interested in publicity? (Image: AP)

Can Donald Trump save Atlantic City? And can he?

The word from The Donald is he says he’s exactly what AC has been missing all these years that he can, and what’s more. As the Trump Plaza shuttered its doors this week and its non-Donald-related owner Trump Entertainment ready to register for bankruptcy, the billionaire genuine estate mogul announced that he’s ‘looking into’ mounting a rescue attempt.

Asked by the Press of Atlantic City whether he would part of to save lots of The Trump Plaza and its own at-risk sister property, the Trump Taj Mahal, the Donald said, ‘We’ll see what are the results. If I can assist the individuals of Atlantic City I’ll do it.’

Later on, on Twitter, and clearly warming to his theme, Trump stated: ‘I left Atlantic City years back, good timing. slots of vegas casino free play Now we may buy back, at reduced expense, to save yourself Plaza & Taj. They had been run defectively by funds!’

Trump has been hugely critical of his former business Trump Entertainment in recent months, and has sought to distance himself from its stricken casino properties. In July, perhaps catching wind of impending bankruptcy, he launched appropriate proceedings to have his name eliminated through the gambling enterprises so that they can safeguard their brand, of which he’s hugely protective.

Sentimental Side?

‘Since Mr. Trump left Atlantic City many years back,’ states the lawsuit, ‘the license entities have allowed the casino properties to fall under a state that is utter of and have otherwise failed to operate and manage the casino properties in accordance with the high standards of quality and luxury needed under the permit agreement.’

Trump left the New Jersey casino industry in 2009, and Trump Entertainment was bought out by a group of hedge fund managers and business bondholders, who have been permitted to retain the brand name in return for a 10 percent ownership stake for Trump in the reorganized company. He has had nothing regarding the casinos’ day-to-day operations since that time.

‘Does anyone notice that Atlantic City lost its magic when I left years ago,’ Trump tweeted. ‘It can be so unfortunate to see just what has occurred to Atlantic City. Therefore numerous bad decisions by the pols through the years: airport, convention center, etc.’

Within the very early ’80s, Trump embarked on a project that is joint getaway Inn and Harrahs to build the break Inn Casino resort. It had been completed in 1984, and he immediately bought out his company partners and renamed the property the Trump Plaza. It was the first casino he ever owned, and this week it closed. Would it be that the notoriously cold-blooded home developer includes a sentimental part? Or perhaps is it, simply, as many individuals think, that he can’t resist some publicity that is good?

Publicity Stunt a Possibility

Senator Jim Whelan (D-Atlantic) believes in the latter explanation.

‘Donald is really a guy who likes to see his title into the paper,’ he stated. ‘He’s never ever been shy about looking for publicity or obtaining publicity. The question is whether this is more publicity for Donald or whether he is seriously interested in coming back to Atlantic City in a real way. We’ll see down the road. Is Donald Trump wanting to get some publicity, or perhaps is he serious? And if he’s serious, come on in and compose some checks.’

‘I am able to see Donald’s ego wanting him to come back as a savior,’ consented gaming consultant Steve Norton. ‘ I do not think Donald’s name would help the casinos that much,’ he said. ‘Our problem is, other casinos have opened up and cut off traffic from Philadelphia and New York.’

Intriguingly, so when if to spite the naysayers, the Trump’s helicopter was seen arriving on the roof for the Taj on Tuesday. Could it be that Trump is really prepared to put his money where their mouth is?

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